Featured image of post Investigating A VIX Trading Signal

Investigating A VIX Trading Signal

A brief look at finding a trading signal based on moving averages of the VIX.

Post Updates

Update 4/8/2025: Added plot for signals for each year. VIX data through 4/7/25.
Update 4/9/2025: VIX data through 4/8/25.
Update 4/12/2025: VIX data through 4/10/25.
Update 4/22/2025: VIX data through 4/18/25.
Update 4/23/2025: VIX data through 4/22/25.
Update 4/25/2025: VIX data through 4/23/25. Added section for trade history, including open and closed positions.
Update 4/28/2025: VIX data through 4/25/25.

Introduction

From the CBOE VIX website:

“Cboe Global Markets revolutionized investing with the creation of the Cboe Volatility Index® (VIX® Index), the first benchmark index to measure the market’s expectation of future volatility. The VIX Index is based on options of the S&P 500® Index, considered the leading indicator of the broad U.S. stock market. The VIX Index is recognized as the world’s premier gauge of U.S. equity market volatility.”

In this tutorial, we will investigate finding a signal to use as a basis to trade the VIX.

VIX Data

I don’t have access to data for the VIX through Nasdaq Data Link, but for our purposes Yahoo Finance is sufficient.

Using the yfinance python module, we can pull what we need and quicky dump it to excel to retain it for future use.

Python Functions

Typical Functions

First, the typical set of functions I use:

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from pathlib import Path

def export_track_md_deps(
    dep_file: Path, 
    md_filename: str, 
    content: str,
) -> None:
    
    """
    Export Markdown content to a file and track it as a dependency.

    This function writes the provided content to the specified Markdown file and 
    appends the filename to the given dependency file (typically `index_dep.txt`).
    This is useful in workflows where Markdown fragments are later assembled 
    into a larger document (e.g., a Hugo `index.md`).

    Parameters:
    -----------
    dep_file : Path
        Path to the dependency file that tracks Markdown fragment filenames.
    md_filename : str
        The name of the Markdown file to export.
    content : str
        The Markdown-formatted content to write to the file.

    Returns:
    --------
    None

    Example:
    --------
    >>> export_track_md_deps(Path("index_dep.txt"), "01_intro.md", "# Introduction\n...")
    ✅ Exported and tracked: 01_intro.md
    """
    
    Path(md_filename).write_text(content)
    with dep_file.open("a") as f:
        f.write(md_filename + "\n")
    print(f"✅ Exported and tracked: {md_filename}")

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from IPython.display import display

def df_info(df) -> None:
    
    """
    Display summary information about a pandas DataFrame.

    This function prints:
    - The DataFrame's column names, shape, and data types via `df.info()`
    - The first 5 rows using `df.head()`
    - The last 5 rows using `df.tail()`

    It uses `display()` for better output formatting in environments like Jupyter notebooks.

    Parameters:
    -----------
    df : pd.DataFrame
        The DataFrame to inspect.

    Returns:
    --------
    None

    Example:
    --------
    >>> df_info(my_dataframe)
    """
    
    print("The columns, shape, and data types are:")
    print(df.info())
    print("The first 5 rows are:")
    display(df.head())
    print("The last 5 rows are:")
    display(df.tail())

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import io
import pandas as pd

def df_info_markdown(df: pd.DataFrame) -> str:
    
    """
    Generate a Markdown-formatted summary of a pandas DataFrame.

    This function captures and formats the output of `df.info()`, `df.head()`, 
    and `df.tail()` in Markdown for easy inclusion in reports, documentation, 
    or web-based rendering (e.g., Hugo or Jupyter export workflows).

    Parameters:
    -----------
    df : pd.DataFrame
        The DataFrame to summarize.

    Returns:
    --------
    str
        A string containing the DataFrame's info, head, and tail 
        formatted in Markdown.

    Example:
    --------
    >>> print(df_info_markdown(df))
    ```text
    The columns, shape, and data types are:
    <output from df.info()>
    ```
    The first 5 rows are:
    |   | col1 | col2 |
    |---|------|------|
    | 0 | ...  | ...  |

    The last 5 rows are:
    ...
    """
    
    buffer = io.StringIO()

    # Capture df.info() output
    df.info(buf=buffer)
    info_str = buffer.getvalue()

    # Convert head and tail to Markdown
    head_str = df.head().to_markdown()
    tail_str = df.tail().to_markdown()

    markdown = [
        "```text",
        "The columns, shape, and data types are:\n",
        info_str,
        "```",
        "\nThe first 5 rows are:\n",
        head_str,
        "\nThe last 5 rows are:\n",
        tail_str
    ]

    return "\n".join(markdown)

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import pandas as pd

def pandas_set_decimal_places(decimal_places: int) -> None:
    
    """
    Set the number of decimal places displayed for floating-point numbers in pandas.

    Parameters:
    ----------
    decimal_places : int
        The number of decimal places to display for float values in pandas DataFrames and Series.

    Example:
    --------
    >>> dp(3)
    >>> pd.DataFrame([1.23456789])
           0
    0   1.235
    """
    
    pd.set_option('display.float_format', lambda x: f'%.{decimal_places}f' % x)

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import pandas as pd
from pathlib import Path

def load_data(
    base_directory: str,
    ticker: str,
    source: str,
    asset_class: str,
    timeframe: str,
) -> pd.DataFrame:
    
    """
    Load data from a CSV or Excel file into a pandas DataFrame.

    This function attempts to read a file first as a CSV, then as an Excel file 
    (specifically looking for a sheet named 'data' and using the 'calamine' engine).
    If both attempts fail, a ValueError is raised.

    Parameters:
    -----------
    base_directory : str
        Root path to read data file.
    ticker : str
        Ticker symbol to read.
    source : str
        Name of the data source (e.g., 'Yahoo').
    asset_class : str
        Asset class name (e.g., 'Equities').
    timeframe : str
        Timeframe for the data (e.g., 'Daily', 'Month_End').
    
    Returns:
    --------
    pd.DataFrame
        The loaded data.

    Raises:
    -------
    ValueError
        If the file could not be loaded as either CSV or Excel.

    Example:
    --------
    >>> df = load_data(DATA_DIR, "^VIX", "Yahoo_Finance", "Indices")
    """

    # Build file paths using pathlib
    csv_path = Path(base_directory) / source / asset_class / timeframe / f"{ticker}.csv"
    xlsx_path = Path(base_directory) / source / asset_class / timeframe / f"{ticker}.xlsx"

    # Try CSV
    try:
        df = pd.read_csv(csv_path)
        return df
    except Exception:
        pass

    # Try Excel
    try:
        df = pd.read_excel(xlsx_path)
        return df
    except Exception:
        pass

    raise ValueError(f"❌ Unable to load file: {ticker}. Ensure it's a valid CSV or Excel file with a 'data' sheet.")

Project Specific Functions

Here’s the code for the function to pull the VIX data and export to Excel:

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import yfinance as yf
import os
from IPython.display import display

def yf_pull_data(
    base_directory: str,
    ticker: str,
    source: str,
    asset_class: str,
    excel_export: bool,
    pickle_export: bool,
) -> None:
    
    """
    Download daily price data from Yahoo Finance and export it.

    Parameters:
    -----------
    base_directory : str
        Root path to store downloaded data.
    ticker : str
        Ticker symbol to download.
    source : str
        Name of the data source (e.g., 'Yahoo').
    asset_class : str
        Asset class name (e.g., 'Equities').
    excel_export : bool
        If True, export data to Excel format.
    pickle_export : bool
        If True, export data to Pickle format.

    Returns:
    --------
    None
    """
    
    # Download data from YF
    df = yf.download(ticker)

    # Drop the column level with the ticker symbol
    df.columns = df.columns.droplevel(1)

    # Reset index
    df = df.reset_index()

    # Remove the "Price" header from the index
    df.columns.name = None

    # Reset date column
    df['Date'] = df['Date'].dt.tz_localize(None)

    # Set 'Date' column as index
    df = df.set_index('Date', drop=True)

    # Drop data from last day because it's not accrate until end of day
    df = df.drop(df.index[-1])
    
    # Create directory
    directory = f"{base_directory}/{source}/{asset_class}/Daily"
    os.makedirs(directory, exist_ok=True)

    # Export to excel
    if excel_export == True:
        df.to_excel(f"{directory}/{ticker}.xlsx", sheet_name="data")
    else:
        pass

    # Export to pickle
    if pickle_export == True:
        df.to_pickle(f"{directory}/{ticker}.pkl")
    else:
        pass

    # Print confirmation and display the first and last date 
    # of data
    print(f"The first and last date of data for {ticker} is: ")
    display(df[:1])
    display(df[-1:])
    print(f"Yahoo Finance data complete for {ticker}")
    return print(f"--------------------")

Data Overview

Acquire CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) Data

First, let’s get the data:

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yf_data_updater('^VIX')

Set Decimal Places

Let’s set the number of decimal places to something sane (like 2):

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pandas_set_decimal_places(2)

Load Data

Now that we have the data, let’s load it up and take a look:

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# VIX
vix = load_data('^VIX.xlsx')

# Set 'Date' column as datetime
vix['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(vix['Date'])

# Drop 'Volume'
vix.drop(columns = {'Volume'}, inplace = True)

# Set Date as index
vix.set_index('Date', inplace = True)

Check For Missing Values & Forward Fill Any Missing Values

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# Check to see if there are any NaN values
vix[vix['High'].isna()]

# Forward fill to clean up missing data
vix['High'] = vix['High'].ffill()

VIX DataFrame Info

Now, running:

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df_info(vix)

Gives us the following:

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The columns, shape, and data types are:

<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>
DatetimeIndex: 8895 entries, 1990-01-02 to 2025-04-25
Data columns (total 4 columns):
 #   Column  Non-Null Count  Dtype  
---  ------  --------------  -----  
 0   Close   8895 non-null   float64
 1   High    8895 non-null   float64
 2   Low     8895 non-null   float64
 3   Open    8895 non-null   float64
dtypes: float64(4)
memory usage: 347.5 KB

The first 5 rows are:

DateCloseHighLowOpen
1990-01-02 00:00:0017.2417.2417.2417.24
1990-01-03 00:00:0018.1918.1918.1918.19
1990-01-04 00:00:0019.2219.2219.2219.22
1990-01-05 00:00:0020.1120.1120.1120.11
1990-01-08 00:00:0020.2620.2620.2620.26

The last 5 rows are:

DateCloseHighLowOpen
2025-04-21 00:00:0033.8235.7531.7932.75
2025-04-22 00:00:0030.5732.6830.0832.61
2025-04-23 00:00:0028.4530.2927.1128.75
2025-04-24 00:00:0026.4729.6626.3628.69
2025-04-25 00:00:0024.8427.2024.8426.22

Statistics

Some interesting statistics jump out at us when we look at the mean, standard deviation, minimum, and maximum values. The following code:

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vix_stats = vix.describe()
num_std = [-1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
for num in num_std:
    vix_stats.loc[f"mean + {num} std"] = {
        'Open': vix_stats.loc['mean']['Open'] + num * vix_stats.loc['std']['Open'],
        'High': vix_stats.loc['mean']['High'] + num * vix_stats.loc['std']['High'],
        'Low': vix_stats.loc['mean']['Low'] + num * vix_stats.loc['std']['Low'],
        'Close': vix_stats.loc['mean']['Close'] + num * vix_stats.loc['std']['Close'],
    }

Gives us:

CloseHighLowOpen
count8895.008895.008895.008895.00
mean19.4920.4018.8219.58
std7.858.417.407.92
min9.149.318.569.01
25%13.8614.5313.4013.93
50%17.6418.3517.0617.68
75%22.8423.8322.1422.97
max82.6989.5372.7682.69
mean + -1 std11.6511.9911.4211.66
mean + 0 std19.4920.4018.8219.58
mean + 1 std27.3428.8126.2227.51
mean + 2 std35.1937.2133.6235.43
mean + 3 std43.0345.6241.0243.35
mean + 4 std50.8854.0348.4251.27
mean + 5 std58.7362.4355.8259.20

Deciles

And the levels for each decile:

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vix_deciles = vix.quantile(np.arange(0, 1.1, 0.1))
display(vix_deciles)

Gives us:

CloseHighLowOpen
0.009.149.318.569.01
0.1012.1212.6211.7212.13
0.2013.2413.8712.8513.30
0.3014.5915.2814.0714.67
0.4016.0916.7515.5516.12
0.5017.6418.3517.0617.68
0.6019.5520.3819.0019.68
0.7021.6422.6420.9921.79
0.8024.3225.3623.5124.39
0.9028.7330.0227.8028.88
1.0082.6989.5372.7682.69

Histogram Distribution

A quick histogram gives us the distribution for the entire dataset:

Histogram

Now, let’s add the levels for the mean, mean plus 1 standard deviation, mean minus 1 standard deviation, and mean plus 2 standard deviations:

Histogram, Mean, And Standard Deviations

Plots

Historical VIX Data

Here’s two plots for the dataset. The first covers 1990 - 2009, and the second 2010 - 2024. This is the daily high level:

1990 - 2009

VIX Daily High, 1990 - 2009

2010 - Present

VIX Daily High, 2010 - Present

From these plots, we can see the following:

  • The VIX has really only jumped above 50 several times (GFC, COVID, recently in August of 2024)
  • The highest levels (> 80) occured only during the GFC & COVID
  • Interestingly, the VIX did not ever get above 50 during the .com bubble

Investigating A Signal

Next, we will consider the idea of a spike level in the VIX and how we might use a spike level to generate a signal. These elevated levels usually occur during market sell-off events or longer term drawdowns in the S&P 500. Sometimes the VIX reverts to recent levels after a spike, but other times levels remain elevated for weeks or even months.

Determining A Spike Level

We will start the 10 day simple moving average (SMA) of the daily high level to get an idea of what is happening recently with the VIX. We’ll then pick an arbitrary spike level (25% above the 10 day SMA), and our signal is generated if the VIX hits a level that is above the spike threshold.

The idea is that the 10 day SMA will smooth out the recent short term volatility in the VIX, and therefore any gradual increases in the VIX are not interpreted as spike events.

We also will generate the 20 and 50 day SMAs for reference, and again to see what is happening with the level of the VIX over slightly longer timeframes.

Here’s the code for the above:

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# Define the spike multiplier for detecting significant spikes
spike_level = 1.25

# =========================
# Simple Moving Averages (SMA)
# =========================

# Calculate 10-period SMA of 'High'
vix['High_SMA_10'] = vix['High'].rolling(window=10).mean()

# Shift the 10-period SMA by 1 to compare with current 'High'
vix['High_SMA_10_Shift'] = vix['High_SMA_10'].shift(1)

# Calculate the spike level based on shifted SMA and spike multiplier
vix['Spike_Level_SMA'] = vix['High_SMA_10_Shift'] * spike_level

# Calculate 20-period SMA of 'High'
vix['High_SMA_20'] = vix['High'].rolling(window=20).mean()

# Determine if 'High' exceeds the spike level (indicates a spike)
vix['Spike_SMA'] = vix['High'] >= vix['Spike_Level_SMA']

# Calculate 50-period SMA of 'High' for trend analysis
vix['High_SMA_50'] = vix['High'].rolling(window=50).mean()

# =========================
# Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)
# =========================

# Calculate 10-period EMA of 'High'
vix['High_EMA_10'] = vix['High'].ewm(span=10, adjust=False).mean()

# Shift the 10-period EMA by 1 to compare with current 'High'
vix['High_EMA_10_Shift'] = vix['High_EMA_10'].shift(1)

# Calculate the spike level based on shifted EMA and spike multiplier
vix['Spike_Level_EMA'] = vix['High_EMA_10_Shift'] * spike_level

# Calculate 20-period EMA of 'High'
vix['High_EMA_20'] = vix['High'].ewm(span=20, adjust=False).mean()

# Determine if 'High' exceeds the spike level (indicates a spike)
vix['Spike_EMA'] = vix['High'] >= vix['Spike_Level_EMA']

# Calculate 50-period EMA of 'High' for trend analysis
vix['High_EMA_50'] = vix['High'].ewm(span=50, adjust=False).mean()

For this exercise, we will use simple moving averages.

Spike Counts (Signals) By Year

To investigate the number of spike events (or signals) that we receive on a yearly basis, we can run the following:

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# Ensure the index is a DatetimeIndex
vix.index = pd.to_datetime(vix.index)

# Create a new column for the year extracted from the date index
vix['Year'] = vix.index.year

# Group by year and the "Spike_SMA" and "Spike_EMA" columns, then count occurrences
spike_count_SMA = vix.groupby(['Year', 'Spike_SMA']).size().unstack(fill_value=0)

spike_count_SMA

Which gives us the following:

YearFalseTrue
19902485
19912494
19922504
19932512
19942439
19952520
19962486
19972476
19982439
19992502
20002484
20012408
20022484
20032511
20042502
20052502
20062429
200723912
200823815
20092493
201023913
201124012
20122482
20132493
201423517
201524012
201623418
20172447
201822823
201924111
202022429
202123517
202223912
20232464
202423715
20256711

And the plot to aid with visualization. Based on the plot, it seems as though volatility has increased since the early 2000’s:

Spike Counts

Spike Counts (Signals) Plots By Year

Here are the yearly plots for when signals are generated:

1990

Spike/Signals, 1990

1991

Spike/Signals, 1991

1992

Spike/Signals, 1992

1993

Spike/Signals, 1993

1994

Spike/Signals, 1994

1995

Spike/Signals, 1995

1996

Spike/Signals, 1996

1997

Spike/Signals, 1997

1998

Spike/Signals, 1998

1999

Spike/Signals, 1999

2000

Spike/Signals, 2000

2001

Spike/Signals, 2001

2002

Spike/Signals, 2002

2003

Spike/Signals, 2003

2004

Spike/Signals, 2004

2005

Spike/Signals, 2005

2006

Spike/Signals, 2006

2007

Spike/Signals, 2007

2008

Spike/Signals, 2008

2009

Spike/Signals, 2009

2010

Spike/Signals, 2010

2011

Spike/Signals, 2011

2012

Spike/Signals, 2012

2013

Spike/Signals, 2013

2014

Spike/Signals, 2014

2015

Spike/Signals, 2015

2016

Spike/Signals, 2016

2017

Spike/Signals, 2017

2018

Spike/Signals, 2018

2019

Spike/Signals, 2019

2020

Spike/Signals, 2020

2021

Spike/Signals, 2021

2022

Spike/Signals, 2022

2023

Spike/Signals, 2023

2024

Spike/Signals, 2024

2025

Spike/Signals, 2025

Spike Counts (Signals) Plots By Decade

And here are the plots for the signals generated over the past 3 decades:

1990 - 1994

Spike/Signals, 1990 - 1994

1995 - 1999

Spike/Signals, 1995 - 1999

2000 - 2004

Spike/Signals, 2000 - 2004

2005 - 2009

Spike/Signals, 2005 - 2009

2010 - 2014

Spike/Signals, 2010 - 2014

2015 - 2019

Spike/Signals, 2015 - 2019

2020 - 2024

Spike/Signals, 2020 - 2024

2025 - Present

Spike/Signals, 2025 - Present

Trading History

I’ve begun trading based on the above ideas, opening positions during the VIX spikes and closing them as volatility comes back down. The executed trades, closed positions, and open positions listed below are all automated updates from the transaction history exports from Schwab. The exported CSV files are available in the GitHub repository.

Trades Executed

Here are the trades executed to date:

Trade_DateActionSymbolQuantityPriceFees & CommAmount
2024-08-05 00:00:00Buy to OpenVIX 09/18/2024 34.00 P110.951.081096.08
2024-08-21 00:00:00Sell to CloseVIX 09/18/2024 34.00 P117.951.081793.92
2024-08-05 00:00:00Buy to OpenVIX 10/16/2024 40.00 P116.351.081636.08
2024-09-18 00:00:00Sell to CloseVIX 10/16/2024 40.00 P121.541.082152.92
2024-08-07 00:00:00Buy to OpenVIX 11/20/2024 25.00 P25.902.161182.16
2024-11-04 00:00:00Sell to CloseVIX 11/20/2024 25.00 P26.102.161217.84
2024-08-06 00:00:00Buy to OpenVIX 12/18/2024 30.00 P110.251.081026.08
2024-11-27 00:00:00Sell to CloseVIX 12/18/2024 30.00 P114.951.081493.92
2025-03-04 00:00:00Buy to OpenVIX 04/16/2025 25.00 P55.655.402830.40
2025-03-24 00:00:00Sell to CloseVIX 04/16/2025 25.00 P57.005.403494.60
2025-03-10 00:00:00Buy to OpenVIX 05/21/2025 26.00 P57.105.403555.40
2025-04-04 00:00:00Buy to OpenVIX 05/21/2025 26.00 P104.1010.814110.81
2025-04-04 00:00:00Buy to OpenVIX 05/21/2025 37.00 P313.203.243963.24
2025-04-08 00:00:00Buy to OpenVIX 05/21/2025 50.00 P221.152.164232.16
2025-04-24 00:00:00Sell to CloseVIX 05/21/2025 50.00 P125.301.082528.92
2025-04-24 00:00:00Sell to CloseVIX 05/21/2025 26.00 P73.507.572442.43
2025-04-25 00:00:00Sell to CloseVIX 05/21/2025 50.00 P125.651.082563.92
2025-04-03 00:00:00Buy to OpenVIX 06/18/2025 27.00 P87.058.655648.65
2025-04-04 00:00:00Buy to OpenVIX 06/18/2025 36.00 P313.403.244023.24
2025-04-07 00:00:00Buy to OpenVIX 06/18/2025 45.00 P218.852.163772.16
2025-04-08 00:00:00Buy to OpenVIX 06/18/2025 27.00 P44.554.321824.32
2025-04-03 00:00:00Buy to OpenVIX 07/16/2025 29.00 P58.555.404280.40
2025-04-04 00:00:00Buy to OpenVIX 07/16/2025 36.00 P313.803.244143.24
2025-04-07 00:00:00Buy to OpenVIX 07/16/2025 45.00 P221.552.164312.16
2025-04-07 00:00:00Buy to OpenVIX 08/20/2025 45.00 P221.752.164352.16

Closed Positions

Here are the closed positions:

SymbolAmount_BuyQuantity_BuyAmount_SellQuantity_SellRealized_PnLProfit_Percent
VIX 09/18/2024 34.00 P1096.0811793.921697.840.64
VIX 10/16/2024 40.00 P1636.0812152.921516.840.32
VIX 11/20/2024 25.00 P1182.1621217.84235.680.03
VIX 12/18/2024 30.00 P1026.0811493.921467.840.46
VIX 04/16/2025 25.00 P2830.4053494.605664.200.23
VIX 05/21/2025 50.00 P4232.1625092.842860.680.20

Net profit and loss percentage: 27.02%
Net profit and loss: $3,243.08

Open Positions

Here are the positions that are currently open:

SymbolAmount_BuyQuantity_Buy
VIX 05/21/2025 26.00 P7666.2115
VIX 05/21/2025 37.00 P3963.243
VIX 06/18/2025 27.00 P7472.9712
VIX 06/18/2025 36.00 P4023.243
VIX 06/18/2025 45.00 P3772.162
VIX 07/16/2025 29.00 P4280.405
VIX 07/16/2025 36.00 P4143.243
VIX 07/16/2025 45.00 P4312.162
VIX 08/20/2025 45.00 P4352.162

References

https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/
https://github.com/ranaroussi/yfinance

Code

The jupyter notebook with the functions and all other code is available here.
The html export of the jupyter notebook is available here.
The pdf export of the jupyter notebook is available here.

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